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Hello and welcome to White House Watch. Let’s get into:

• Rising inflation piling pressure on voters ahead of the midterms

• An exclusive interview with Volodymyr Zelenskyy

• FT poll finding that Democrats’ lead among independent voters has grown

US inflation jumped to 3.7 per cent in September as the war in Iran drove a rebound in fuel prices, piling pressure on Americans ahead of the midterm elections.

Wednesday’s annual consumer price index figure was up from 3.4 per cent in August, prompting traders to raise bets on Federal Reserve rate rises. The increase exceeded the 3.6 per cent forecast in a Bloomberg poll of economists.

It’s the first time US annual inflation has risen since May, and the data underlines how the energy shock triggered by the war in Iran continues to reverberate across the economy.

President Donald Trump has tried to contain the economic fallout from the conflict and douse fuel prices, as Democrats tap into voter frustration at the cost of living and seek to wrest control of Congress from his Republican Party.

It could revive a politically sensitive issue for Trump that US consumers are facing a fresh period of grocery price rises, unleashing another bout of food inflation on the nation’s supermarket shelves.

And Wednesday’s data suggests that less-affluent Americans in particular are being increasingly squeezed.

Hourly earnings rose just 3 per cent in September versus a year earlier, marking the sixth consecutive month of declining real wage growth.

What do you want to know about the midterm elections? Washington bureau chief James Politi will be answering your questions in a special edition of this newsletter ahead of the vote. Email Questo indirizzo email è protetto dagli spambots. È necessario abilitare JavaScript per vederlo. with your question.

• In a defiant interview with the FT in London, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine would restart strikes on Russia’s oil refineries. Meanwhile, the US has proposed that European countries unfreeze some Russian assets and transfer them to a vehicle overseen by Washington in an attempt to revive peace talks.

• Republican candidates have dramatically increased their ad spending, including in races not previously considered competitive. Here’s a breakdown of the party’s spending surge.

• In 2024, nearly half of Hispanic voters backed Trump. But polls predict that a big majority of them will support the Democratic Party in this year’s midterms as the president’s Latino voters suffer from buyer’s remorse.

• Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has criticised Trump’s plan to buy diesel from Russia, calling it a “very risky choice”.

• US ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle was asked by the White House to step down amid reports she accepted improper gifts.