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First the headline numbers. The three-day London Wine Fair attracted over 10,000 visitors for the first time in years, and 13% more exhibition space. Hannah Tovey, who has run the event since 2017, finally headed a management buy-out last October and wrested the business from Brintex, the company that, though underinvestment and a lack of any kind of vision, had overseen its steady decline from the glory days of the 1990s and the beginning of this century.

Back then it was the London International Wine Trade Fair, and competed for professional attention with Vinexpo Bordeaux (until 2010 ProWein was still a largely German-focused event). At its peak, exhibitors represented 38 countries, and up to 20,000 visitors included distributors and producers from the US, Scandinavia and Asia who’d flown into the UK capital to find out what was new in the world of wine. The Australian section alone was big enough to warrant at least a solid day’s attention.

I think I introduced Steven Henschke to Vinolok at the London fair; I know that Georg Riedel thought it the place to launch a new line of glasses.

Changed status

But, after a slowdown in the first decade of the century, in 2013, like a Facebook user changing their status, Brintex, removed the word ‘International’ from the event’s name, and the fair steadily shrank in size and significance. Exhibiting nations like Australia and New Zealand disappeared, as did most UK distributors. Hatch Mansfield, Beyond, Seckford and ABW are now among the small number that have continued to support the fair.

Instead, there is a section where companies that might once have had stands, now present their wares on tables, like a Saturday morning market. Instead of having a stand or collection of stands, New Zealand has a one-day 'pop up'.

Areas of the floor that would once have been full of exhibition stands are now home to lecture and tasting areas. These were, given the quality of the presentations, understandably well-attended, but an observer might wonder how much revenue they and the wide aisles and seating areas generated in a business where everything is charged by the square metre.

Tovey’s company, VIndustrious has not had long enough to turn the ship very far, but, as Richard Siddle of The Buyer reported there was a clear feeling that the show has “’got its mojo back.” The new owners, however, have a very tough hill to climb. Again, as Siddle noted, the fair’s lack of importance to the OK wine trade was illustrated by the number of other wine events that were held in London while it was on. Companies that once exhibited, now promote their wines in other ways and in other contexts and are unlikely to return en masse, however many calls are made for ‘industry loyalty’.

Beyond wine

But, maybe salvation for the Fair doesn’t lie in the UK, or even  the international, wine trade. One of the busiest parts of the event was the beer-focused BREW//LDN section. The potential for spirits - a sector in which the UK is far more of a leader now than wine - is huge. Brave owners of the London Wine Fair would rename, rebrand and relaunch it as an event in which wine (including NOLOs) would share the stage with a wide range of other beverages. I’m sure some vinous purists will spit at the very idea; I know that Brintex gave it scant thought when I proposed it to them well over a decade ago. But times have changed, and I truly believe that a dynamic international, broad, drinks-focused event with the top-flight, deep-pocketed exhibitors that implies, would give London an event that, once again, attracted visitors from across the planet.

Adapt, Exit or Die

My latest substack - my most widely read so far - took a fairly brutal look at six types of wine company and considered whether they should adapt (and how), exit the business, or accept that they are doomed to extinction. Some will dislike/disagree with my premise, but I list the challenges the industry faces, and point out that an almost inevitable global reduction in volumes of 20% is bound to leave blood on the carpet.

The challenges

• Demand collapse. OIV figures show global wine consumption having fallen by 3.3% between 2023 and 2024. IWSR estimates show a further decline of around 2.4% last year; French long-term domestic consumption is in structural decline; the US post-pandemic premiumisation thesis has narrowed to reveal that growth is concentrated in the very top tier. While wine industry boomers worry about WHO cancer warnings, observers like me focus on younger people who are far more concerned about well-being issues, including the impact of alcohol on sleep patterns. It is no longer unusual to hear people of various ages say that they no longer drink between Sunday and Thursday.

• Increased competition. For many, wine, beer and spirits used to be the default adult beverages. Those days are over. Today, they compete with a growing range of alcoholic – think RTDs – and non-alcoholic options, as well as functional drinks and cannabis (possibly in liquid form).

• Weight loss drugs. People taking GLP-1 treatments like Wegovy and Ozempic report losing their appetite for alcohol. They may also be less likely to want to pay restaurants high prices for the limited amount of food they want to eat. The number of users of these drugs is going to rise as other health benefits are identified, patents run out, prices fall and application shifts from needles to pills.

• Climate change. Earlier harvests (3–4 days per decade), higher alcohol levels, general unpredictability, yield inconsistency, increased disease pressure, rising frost/hail volatility, fire and associated smoke taint. These are operating-cost increases, not just narrative.

• Water shortages. In some regions such as California, producers and grape growers are having to fight for water rights. Elsewhere, including parts of Europe where irrigation is still illegal, their counterparts are struggling with unpredictable droughts that slash yields and halt grape ripening.

• Labour shortages. A growing number of people, from migrant workers to the sons and daughters of ageing winemakers, no longer see much appeal in vineyard work, or indeed in managing wine businesses. Wineries everywhere face wage inflation that mechanisation cannot always solve (steep slopes, organic constraints, narrow appellation rules)

• Tariffs and trade fragmentation. EU wines now face a 15% US tariff (Section 122, in force from February 2026 following the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling) with periodic 200% threats; Canada has banned US wine imports; the EU-Mercosur deal opens South America; UK alcohol duty changes have shifted shelf economics. Markets are no longer freely substitutable.

• Distribution decay. US distributor consolidation has reduced the number of paths to market; many distributors are declining to add new wineries and, indeed, are culling some existing ones; UK and European retailers are squeezing margins; the on-trade is shrinking as restaurants close or de-emphasise wine programmes.

• Capital cost pressure. Higher interest rates have made it more expensive to carry inventory — particularly punishing for any business holding multi-year-aged stock. Wineries that expanded during the low-rate era are now caught with debt service that exceeds incremental margin.

• Becoming uninsurable. Swiss Re data cited by Carbon Brief says wildfire-related insured losses have risen from roughly 1% of global insured catastrophe losses before 2015 to around 7% today. Fitch estimated the 2025 Los Angeles fires alone could consume over 30% of European reinsurers’ catastrophe budgets for the year. Inevitably, this is affecting premiums and the availability of cover.A Napa winery owner recently told the Guardian their insurance rose from roughly $40,000/year to $300,000/year while providing far less protection. In France, Le Monde reported growers complaining that insurance provides “little coverage” for repeated climate disasters. Smoke taint is often excluded. This changes the economics for everyone downstream

Most of the piece is behind a firewall, I'm afraid (my electricity supplier and local food market don't accept payment in 'likes' and 'reposts'), but 51 people have found it worth taking out subscriptions to read it all, and other firewalled pieces. Future ones will include how to build a DTC business (trickier than one might imagine) and how to give a US importer what they are looking for (spoiler alert: good wine at a good price doesn't get you very far)