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Nord Stream intrigue raises tricky questions for Kyiv

A six-month-old mystery could complicate Kyiv’s current-day war efforts. The undersea explosions that severely damaged the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines last September seemed like a distant memory as Ukrainian forces battled their Russian invaders this year, even if the question of the blast’s perpetrators remained.

But new reports have brought that Nord Stream attack back to the fore, bringing with them potentially risky complications for Kyiv. Western intelligence officials have said privately that they suspect that pro-Ukraine saboteurs may be responsible for explosions that severely damaged the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, The Washington Post and the New York Times reported this week.

On Tuesday, German newspaper Die Zeit and public broadcasters ARD and SWR added to the intrigue, reporting that federal prosecutors in the country had found that saboteurs used a yacht rented from a company in Poland that was “apparently owned by two Ukrainians.”

The reports are far from conclusive and the Ukrainian government strenuously denies any involvement. But whether involved or not, Kyiv has good reason to be cautious about the intrigue, which comes as it continues its push for new support from its allies, including weaponry.

The reaction in Berlin will be particularly important to watch. At the start of the war, the German government was simultaneously dependent on Russian gas and a key European ally for the Ukrainian government, despite deep controversy over the dueling roles.

However, the Sept. 26 explosions have effectively closed the troubled pipelines for Russian gas. In the months since, Berlin has — sometimes begrudgingly — ramped up its support for Kyiv, most notably by agreeing to the export of Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine early this year. If Kyiv were to be linked to the attacks on Nord Stream, it could threaten that — potentially pushing Berlin support back after considerable progress for Kyiv.